The impacts of this year’s severe economic headwinds – soaring inflation and interest rates, stock market declines, fears of recession – on Bay Area real estate markets are speeding up. The first effect was on buyer demand (fewer buyers, offers and listings into contract), leading to changes in supply (more homes for sale, more price reductions), which began to alter buyer and seller psychology and the balance of power between them. Especially after one of the longest, most dramatic upcycles in history, the psychology, circumstances and plans of individual buyers and sellers shift unevenly in the early months of a transition as they try to make sense of changing market realities. Eventually statistics based on closed sales – prices, appreciation rates, overbidding, days on market – slowly start to adjust. Generally speaking, closed sales are lagging indicators of what occurred in the economy and market weeks and months earlier.
A. San Francisco
July Stats 2022
Single-month median house sales prices (and year over year appreciation rates) are more volatile – more prone to fluctuation – than quarterly median sales prices. The year over year percentage change in any 1 month should be considered preliminary until substantiated over the longer term.
Year over year Appreciation Rate Turned Slightly Negative in June 2022
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B. Santa Clara County
July Stats 2022
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly fluctuations are common: Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.
Comparing June 2022 with June 2021, the number of price reductions was up 176%.
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C. San Mateo County
July Stats 2022
As of June 30,2022, there were 901 active and coming soon listings posted to MLS. This measure how many active listings can be expected on any given day of the specified month.
Comparing monthly market
activity in 2021 and 2022, June 2022 with June 2021, the number of active listings on a given day of the month was up about 30%. And the number of new listings was down about 11%.
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D. Stanford Circle
July Stats 2022
Dollar per Square Foot is calculated on interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though all these can add value). Average dollar per square foot values are affected by a number of factors, including the average size and lot size of homes sold within the quarter.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
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E. Tri-Valley South Alameda
July Stats 2022
An increasing number of price reductions is a classic indicator of a cooling market, though this statistic also ebbs and flows according to seasonal trends.
Comparing June 2022 with June 2021, the number of price reductions in Alameda County was up 245%.
Higher-price home sales skyrocketed in spring 2022 to hit all-time highs,
before dropping back in June.
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F. Marin County
July Stats 2022
Generally speaking, sales in one month reflect new listings and offers being accepted in the previous month or two. Higher-price home sales typically ebb and flow dramatically by season.
Comparing June 2022 with June 2021, the number of $3 million+ home sales was down about 11%, and the number of home sales was down about 24%. Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted-offer activity in the previous month.
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G. North Contra Costa
July Stats 2022
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract. Though sales have declined, and time on market has increased since April, those homes selling have still, on average, sold very quickly. This statistic typically ebbs and flows per seasonal demand trends.
Since April 2022, the average overbid percentage has dropped by 5.5 points through June. 100% = an average sales price at original list price while 106% = an average sales price and 6% over asking price.
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